Auteur : Djibril Chimère DIAW
Publié pour la première fois le 30 Janvier 2026
PDF : https://archive.org/details/@xamxamsoft
The
Case for a Federation of African States South of the Sahara (FASS)
Empirical Evidence, Economic Mass, and
Demographic Trajectories
Djibril Chimère DIAW
Copyright
The Case for a Federation of African States South of the
Sahara (FASS) : Empirical Evidence, Economic Mass, and
Demographic Trajectories
Copyright © 2026 Djibril Chimère DIAW
All rights reserved
Dedication
To
my mother Marème Fall
my father Amadou Chimère Diaw
my wife Isabelle Diaw
my children
Fatou-Chimère Diaw, Ahmadou-Chimère Diaw,
Marième-Chimère Diaw, Aïssata-Chimère Diaw .
my grandparents
Fatou Methiour Ndiaye & Waly Sega Fall
Fatou Faye & Souleymane Chimère Diaw
Teachers
To those who shall come into the world a century
after me, beginning in the year two thousand and seventy-two.
To all mothers,
to those who made our coming into the world possible through
the gift of themselves,
to those who, even today, carry, give
birth to, nourish, protect, and raise life,
to those who,
tomorrow, will continue to open the path of human existence.
To all women who, in silence or in light, have risked their
bodies, their strength, and sometimes their lives so that humanity
may endure.
To their quiet courage, their daily resilience, and
their founding love.
May this work stand as an act of recognition,
a
tribute passed on from generation to generation,
and a word of
gratitude addressed to those without whom nothing would have been,
nothing is, and nothing will be.
Editorial
Preface
This volume advances a central proposition that is both empirical
and institutional in nature: that the long-term demographic and
economic trajectories of Africa south of the Sahara justify, and
increasingly require, serious consideration of a federal political
framework at the regional level. The argument developed across the
chapters does not arise from abstract political aspiration, but from
a sustained engagement with authoritative international data and
historical comparison.
Drawing on official statistics from the World Bank and the United
Nations, the studies assembled here establish two foundational facts.
First, when analyzed as a regional aggregate rather than as a
collection of fragmented nation-states, Africa south of the Sahara
has already constituted a globally significant economic mass. For
extended periods in the late twentieth century, its combined nominal
GDP exceeded that of India and, during a substantial pre-reform
interval, that of China. Second, demographic projections indicate
that the region will become the primary center of global population
growth over the twenty-first century, surpassing both India and China
in absolute population size by mid-century and continuing to expand
thereafter.
Taken together, these findings challenge the prevailing analytical
frameworks through which Africa is typically interpreted. They reveal
a growing mismatch between the region’s objective demographic and
economic weight, on the one hand, and its institutional fragmentation
and limited systemic leverage, on the other. It is precisely this
mismatch that gives rise to the federal question at the heart of this
book.
The concept of a Federation of African States south of the Sahara
is not presented here as a utopian ideal or a uniform political
blueprint. Rather, it is articulated as a rational institutional
response to structural realities. In a global system increasingly
organized around large, integrated economic and political entities,
fragmentation imposes measurable costs in terms of bargaining power,
policy coordination, market integration, and strategic autonomy. The
historical evidence presented in this volume suggests that Africa’s
economic underperformance cannot be adequately explained by
demographic growth alone, but must be understood in relation to the
absence of institutional scale commensurate with its human and
productive potential.
By systematically linking population dynamics, aggregate GDP, and
systemic power, the contributions in this book offer a new lens
through which African integration can be evaluated. Federalism is
treated not as an ideological endpoint, but as an analytical
hypothesis: a means by which demographic mass may be transformed into
economic capacity, and economic capacity into durable influence
within global governance structures.
This volume thus invites scholars, policymakers, and African
intellectuals to move beyond inherited categories and to engage with
a question that has too often remained implicit: whether the
political organization of Africa south of the Sahara is aligned with
the scale of the challenges and opportunities it faces. In grounding
this question in empirical evidence rather than normative assertion,
the book seeks to elevate the debate on African unity to the level of
structural necessity and historical possibility.
General
Introduction
The economic, demographic, and political trajectories of Africa
south of the Sahara are most often approached through fragmented
analytical frameworks, dominated by national-level comparisons, per
capita indicators, and normative narratives inherited from the
postcolonial decades. This mode of analysis, now routinized in
economic literature and institutional discourse, tends to obscure a
central dimension: when considered as a regional aggregate, Africa
south of the Sahara constitutes one of the largest human and economic
ensembles of contemporary history.
This volume begins from a simple but rarely articulated
observation: the analysis of economic and systemic power cannot be
reduced to a collection of isolated state performances, nor to per
capita averages. It requires a perspective centered on
mass—demographic mass, productive mass, institutional mass—and on
their articulation over the long term. When such a perspective is
adopted, the official data produced by major international
institutions reveal empirical facts that stand in tension with
dominant narratives.
The contributions brought together in this book demonstrate, in
particular, that the combined GDP of Africa south of the Sahara
exceeded that of India and China over extended periods, and that this
reality coincided with an already sustained demographic dynamic. They
also show that, far from constituting a mere factor of vulnerability,
African population growth is embedded in a major structural
transformation of the global demographic balance in the twenty-first
century.
The ambition of this volume is neither apologetic nor polemical.
It is a work of empirical and conceptual reassessment, based
exclusively on recognized institutional sources (the World Bank and
the United Nations), aimed at reexamining the analytical categories
used to think about Africa in the world economy. In doing so, the
book proposes a shift in perspective: from an Africa conceived as a
fragmented periphery to an Africa envisioned as a potential systemic
ensemble, whose political fragmentation increasingly appears as a
historical anomaly rather than an immutable condition.
From this standpoint, the question of a federation of African
states south of the Sahara is not approached as an abstract ideal,
but as a rational hypothesis that can be discussed in the light of
economic and demographic facts. The volume thus invites a rethinking
of the links between population, production, and power, and calls for
the integration of Africa into analyses of contemporary
transformations of the world system.
For a Federation of States of Africa
South of the Sahara
Empirical
Foundations, Aggregate Economic Mass, and Demographic Trajectory
Abstract
The question of political and economic integration in Africa south
of the Sahara is generally addressed from normative, institutional,
or historical perspectives, and only rarely on the basis of a
rigorous macroeconomic demonstration grounded in observed aggregates.
Yet official World Bank data show that the combined GDP of Africa
south of the Sahara, measured in current US dollars, exceeded that of
India from 1976 to 1998, as well as in 2005, 2006, and 2008, and
exceeded that of China from 1976 to 1991, with the exception of the
year 1989.
At the same time, United Nations demographic projections (World
Population Prospects 2024) indicate that by 2050 the population of
Africa south of the Sahara will surpass that of both India and China,
and could exceed 3.3 billion by 2100, concentrating a substantial
share of global population growth.
This article argues that the persistent disconnect between this
economic and demographic mass, on the one hand, and the current
political fragmentation of the region, on the other, constitutes a
structural constraint on the emergence of African systemic power. On
empirical and analytical grounds, it calls for a serious and informed
debate on the establishment of a Federation of States of Africa south
of the Sahara as a rational institutional horizon.
Keywords: Africa south of the Sahara; federalism;
aggregate GDP; demography; regional integration; systemic power;
World Bank; United Nations.
1.
Introduction
The political fragmentation of Africa south of the Sahara is
frequently presented as an irreversible historical legacy or as a
quasi-natural feature of the international order. Debates on African
integration thus remain largely confined to diplomatic, ideological,
or institutional registers, and are only rarely grounded in a
rigorous analysis of aggregate macroeconomic magnitudes.
Yet comparative political economy rests on a fundamental
principle: the capacity of an entity to exert influence within the
global system depends less on the number of political units that
compose it than on its consolidated economic, demographic, and
institutional mass. From this perspective, Africa south of the Sahara
constitutes a singular case: a politically fragmented region that is
nevertheless historically and potentially endowed with a mass
comparable to that of the largest continental powers.
This article advances a simple thesis: the available empirical
data fully justify the examination of a Federation of States of
Africa south of the Sahara not as an abstract ideal, but as a
rational institutional option grounded in measurable economic and
demographic realities.
2.
A Largely Overlooked Macroeconomic Reality
2.1
The Dominant Analytical Bias
The dominant economic literature rarely compares Africa south of
the Sahara, considered as a regional aggregate, with the major Asian
economies. Comparisons instead privilege either individual states or
per capita indicators, which mechanically leads to an underestimation
of the region’s total economic mass.
This methodological bias produces a persistent representation of
marginality, regardless of the aggregate data that are directly
observable.
2.2
The Central Stylized Fact: A Historically Superior Aggregate GDP
Based on official World Bank data (indicator NY.GDP.MKTP.CD,
nominal GDP in current US dollars), it emerges that:
the combined GDP of Africa south of the Sahara exceeded that
of India from 1976 to 1998, as well as in 2005, 2006, and 2008;
it exceeded that of China from 1976 to 1991, with the
exception of the year 1989.
These results, counterintuitive in light of dominant narratives,
are empirically verifiable and methodologically transparent. They
demonstrate that a significant African economic mass has existed
independently of any federal political framework.
3.
The Demographic Trajectory: A Systemic Turning Point Underway
3.1
United Nations Projections
According to the World Population Prospects 2024, the population
of Africa south of the Sahara is expected to reach approximately:
This dynamic contrasts sharply with the stabilization and
subsequent decline projected for China’s population, and with the
progressive slowdown of demographic growth in India.
3.2
Demographic Mass and Systemic Power
In world economic history, no entity endowed with such a durable
demographic mass has remained structurally marginal when equipped
with institutions capable of aggregating production, markets, and
political decision-making. The central issue is therefore not
population size per se, but institutional capacity to transform human
mass into economic and strategic power.
4.
Political Fragmentation as a Structural Constraint
Africa south of the Sahara currently comprises more than forty
sovereign states, often of modest economic size, endowed with
heterogeneous currencies, trade policies, and regulatory frameworks.
This fragmentation:
limits the emergence of an integrated internal market;
weakens international bargaining power;
prevents large-scale pooling of industrial, energy, and
technological policies.
Comparison with the trajectories of China, India, or even the
European Union shows that institutional aggregation invariably
precedes or accompanies the aggregation of power.
5.
Toward a Federation of States of Africa South of the Sahara: Rational
Foundations
5.1
A Federation as an Aggregator of Mass
A Federation of States of Africa south of the Sahara would not
require the erasure of existing states, but their articulation within
a federal framework enabling:
partial unification of strategic economic policies;
consolidation of the internal market;
unified representation in major international institutions.
5.2
Empirical Continuity and Institutional Rupture
Historical data show that the region already constituted a
significant global economic mass without a federal political
structure. The contemporary challenge is to align future demographic
trajectories with an institutional architecture capable of converting
this mass into durable systemic power.
6.
Limits and Analytical Precautions
It must be emphasized that:
nominal GDP is sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations;
a federation does not mechanically guarantee economic
efficiency;
historical trajectories do not automatically determine future
outcomes.
Nevertheless, these limitations do not invalidate the central
diagnosis: the absence of political aggregation now constitutes a
major explanatory factor in the underutilization of African
potential.
7.
Conclusion
World Bank and United Nations data converge toward a clear
conclusion: Africa south of the Sahara possesses, both historically
and prospectively, an economic and demographic mass comparable to
that of the great continental powers.
In this context, the question of a Federation of States of Africa
south of the Sahara no longer belongs to the realm of political
utopia, but to that of rational debate grounded in measurable facts.
The real issue is not whether Africa can become a systemic actor, but
whether it will equip itself with institutions capable of
transforming its human and economic mass into collective power.
Transversal
Conclusion
The analyses assembled in this volume converge toward a central
conclusion: the economic and demographic history of Africa south of
the Sahara, when read at the appropriate scale of the regional
aggregate, profoundly contradicts dominant representations of a
structurally marginal Africa. The data show that, over several
decades, an African economic mass existed that was comparable to—or
even greater than—that of major Asian economies, and that this mass
was constituted alongside, rather than in opposition to, sustained
demographic growth.
This observation requires an analytical reversal. The fundamental
problem has never been a lack of population or an absence of
production, but rather the structural inability to transform these
masses into durable systemic power. This inability does not stem from
demographic or cultural fatalism, but from a fragmented institutional
framework, inherited from history and increasingly ill-suited to a
world organized around large, integrated continental blocs.
Looking toward the twenty-first century, the key question is
therefore no longer whether Africa south of the Sahara will matter
demographically and economically in the world—United Nations
projections already answer this in the affirmative—but in what form
this mass will be translated politically, economically, and
institutionally. A persistently fragmented Africa risks dissipating
its potential power, whereas an Africa capable of developing credible
federal mechanisms could fundamentally alter its historical
trajectory.
Federalization thus appears neither as a utopia nor as an
ideological injunction, but as a strategic hypothesis consistent with
the observed facts. It represents a possible framework for aligning
demography, production, and governance, and for fostering a capacity
for negotiation, planning, and investment commensurate with the
challenges of the century.
Ultimately, this book argues for the reintegration of Africa south
of the Sahara into the field of major systemic global analyses—not
as an object of assistance or unfavorable comparison, but as a
historical actor in the making, bearing a human and economic mass
whose political meaning remains, to a large extent, yet to be
constructed.